Why these elections were held in Punjab, what was the reason for Imran’s victory and what would be its effect?

Former Prime Minister in the by-election of Pakistan’s Punjab province Imran Khan The party of ‘Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’ has got a big victory. Enthused by the results, Imran has demanded fresh general elections in the country. It was the first election contest between Imran’s party PTI and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) after he was ousted as prime minister in April. In these elections held on 20 seats in Punjab, Imran’s party got 15 seats, while PML-N got 4 seats. Independent won one seat.What will be the effect of the victory of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party PTI in the by-elections on 20 seats in Pakistan’s Punjab province? After all, why were these elections, what was the reason for Imran’s victory, what is the court’s problem in this election?

Why were elections held in the Punjab province of Pakistan?
This is from last April. When the united opposition coalition of Nawaz Sharif’s party PML-N, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party and PDM chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman opened a front against the Imran Khan government of Pakistan and his party’s chief minister Usman Buzdar in Punjab. When Buzdar resigned under pressure, Imran made ally PML-Q’s Chaudhary Parvez Elahi as the CM candidate of Punjab. In the election for the post of CM, 25 MLAs of Imran’s party voted in favor of Hamza Shahbaz, the candidate of Nawaz’s party. On Imran’s petition, the Election Commission there disqualified these 25 MLAs. Due to this, these seats fell vacant in the 371-member Punjab house.

If 25 seats are vacant in the assembly, then why the election on 20?
Out of the 25 disqualified MLAs of Imran Khan’s party PTI, 5 were later nominated to the reserve seats. Of these, two were placed in the non-Muslim quota and three in the women’s quota. In this way, only 20 seats were left vacant, on which elections were held on Sunday and the results were also declared.

What was the mathematics of the assembly before the by-election?
Assembly seats 349
(Total seats 371, 20 of them vacated by disqualification, 2 resignations)
In favor of Hamza – 175
PML-N 163, PPP 7, Pakistan Rah-e-Haq 1, Independent 4
With Imran’s party – 173
PTI 163, PML-Q 10
independent 1

What is the status of the assembly after the results?
Assembly seats 371
186 required for majority
With Imran’s Party – 188
In favor of CM Hamza Sharif – 179
Independent – 1
Seats Vacant – 3

Will Hamza Sharif have to resign?
After the results of the by-election, the government of Chief Minister Hamza Shahbaz has come to a minority in Punjab and in such a situation, the CM election will be held again. Since the count is in favor of Imran’s party PTI, he is sure to come to power.

What were the reasons behind the victory of Imran’s party?
Imran’s campaign in the by-election focused solely on calling 25 MLAs who had left the party as traitors. Imran managed to add new voters, he got the benefit of such voters in 8 seats of the by-election. PTI fielded candidates who already have a strong support base. Allies also got support.

Why did Imran’s party go to court before the by-election?
In fact, when Hamza Sharif was elected CM, he got a total of 197 votes in the 371-member house. These included 25 votes from Imran’s party, 4 independents and 1 Rah-e-Haq party vote. As the Election Commission later disqualified 25 MLAs, the Lahore High Court ordered re-counting on the appeal of Imran and his ally PML-Q. As soon as this order is implemented, Hamza Sharif will be reduced to a minority and the votes in his favor will be reduced by 25 to 172, while the majority figure is 186.

High Court order in favor, then why Supreme Court?
If the CM is elected again by the order of the High Court, then according to the Pakistani constitution, it is enough to bring a majority on the number present in the house during that time. That is, it is not necessary to touch the figure of 186. Since the cut of votes of 25 MLAs would have resulted in 175 votes in favor of Hamza and 173 in favor of Imran’s party, the fight would have been very close. In such a situation, Imran challenged this order in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court said that even after the results of the by-election, if there is a need for re-counting or elections, it will be held on July 22, i.e. till then Hamza will remain the CM.

What were the main reasons for the defeat of Hamza Sharif’s party?
In the 2018 elections, the candidates who landed on the ticket of PML-N, who did not get the ticket this time, contested as an independent. Vote split. Inflation hurt especially in urban areas. Oil prices and taxes have risen due to the IMF’s terms of the loan.

What will happen if general elections are held ahead of time?
Imran has demanded a general election after the victory. It is certain that they will press for it. By the way, elections are proposed in Pakistan in October 2023. If they happen earlier, the burden on the already troubled Pakistani economy will only increase. At present, inflation is at a 13-year high. In May, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves were only 10 billion dollars. By the end of June, this country had a debt of $ 8.6 billion. Prior to this, 21 billion was spent there in the 2018 general election.